Thursday, 6 December 2018

Hawaiian Airlines predicts lower passenger numbers and revenues

Hawaiian Airlines, announced its system-wide traffic statistics for the month ended November 30th, 2018 earlier this week which showed the sunny carrier took more than 937,000  passengers for a ride in November 2018, slightly down on last year, with load factor also down slightly to 84.1%. The airline also lowered its expectations for certain fourth quarter results.


SYSTEM-WIDE OPERATIONS
NOVEMBER
2018
2017
% CHANGE
PAX
937,815
945,568
(0.8%)
RPMS (000)
1,365,133
1,327,946
2.8%
ASMS (000)
1,622,929
1,546,170
5.0%
LF
84.1%
85.9%
(1.8) pts.




YEAR-TO-DATE
2018
2017
% CHANGE
PAX
10,858,607
10,504,678
3.4%
RPMS (000)
15,747,820
14,928,462
5.5%
ASMS (000)
18,434,777
17,361,329
6.2%
LF
85.4%
86.0%
(0.6) pts.


   The Company has revised its expectations for the quarter ending December 31, 2018, that were previously listed back at the end of October.  Hawaiian Airlines also lowered its expectations for revenue per ASM (RASM) primarily due to lower than expected market pricing on its North America routes, and lower than expected demand within its neighbour island network, primarily to Hawai'i Island.  Year-over-year visitor growth from North America to Hawai'i remains positive, but at a slower pace than industry capacity growth.

The company also lowered its expectations for costs per ASM (CASM) excluding fuel primarily due to non-recurring offsets to maintenance costs, and lower than expected benefits expense and project-related administrative costs.

The table below summarizes the company's revised expectations for the quarter ending December 31, 2018, expressed as an expected percentage change compared to the results for the quarter ended December 31, 2017.

Item

Original
Fourth Quarter
2018 Guidance

Revised
Fourth Quarter
2018 Guidance

GAAP
Equivalent

Original
GAAP Fourth
Quarter 2018
Guidance

Revised
GAAP Fourth
Quarter 2018
Guidance
Operating revenue per available seat mile (ASM)

Down 2.5% - Up 0.5%

Down 3.0 – 5.0%






Cost per ASM (CASM) excluding aircraft fuel (a)

Down 2.0% - Up 1.0%

Down 1.0 – 3.0%

Cost per ASM

Up 2.3 – 5.8%

Up 0.6 – 3.3%


(a)
See Non-GAAP Financial Reconciliations for a reconciliation of GAAP operating expenses to operating expenses excluding aircraft fuel

Non-GAAP Financial Reconciliations
Operating Costs per Available Seat Mile (CASM)
(in thousands, except CASM data) (unaudited)


Estimated three months ending December 31, 2018
GAAP operating expenses

$
616,369

to

644,904

Less: aircraft fuel, including taxes and delivery

(147,524)

to
(157,235)

Adjusted operating expenses - excluding aircraft fuel


468,844

to

487,669

Available Seat Miles

5,013,951

to
5,109,912

CASM – GAAP

12.29
¢
to
12.62
¢
Less: aircraft fuel

(2.94)

to
(3.08)

CASM - excluding aircraft fuel

9.35
¢
to
9.54
¢

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