European airlines: enduring market fragmentation complicates the pandemic recovery process
Signs of possible further consolidation in Europe’s airline sector are a reminder of how difficult the recovery from the Covid-19 shock will be for the still fragmented industry, particularly compared with the US, says Scope Ratings.
The unsolicited takeover approach by Hungary-based Wizz Air Ltd. for easyJet PLC earlier this month coincides with new fundraising by easyJet itself, while Deutsche Lufthansa AG (BBB-/Negative) is also planning a capital increase. The three carriers are among the six dominant airlines in Europe alongside Air France-KLM SA, International Airlines Group PLC and Ryanair PLC. Pre-crisis, the five western Europe-based carriers controlled a little more than 50% of the European passenger-travel market whereas the top five US airlines shared around 70% of their domestic market.
“Easyjet rebuffed Wizz’s approach, but we suspect that further consolidation will take place, perhaps just not as fast as it should, given the long-term pressure on profitability exacerbated by the pandemic,” says Azza Chammem, analyst at Scope.
“The European industry remains vulnerable partly because of the overcapacity that makes it nearly impossible for most carriers to build up the resilience they need to cope with the sector’s cyclicality and vulnerability to external shocks unless they are at the bottom of the cost curve like Ryanair and Wizz Air,” says Sebastian Zank, deputy head of corporate ratings at Scope.