The U.S. plane company Boeing thinks the African commercial aviation market will need 1,030 new aeroplanes by 2040 which it values at $160 billion. On top of that, the overpriced aircraft manufacturer says after-sales market services such as repair will bring in an extra $235 billion. The U.S. company released the predictions as part of its Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), its long-term assessment of demand for commercial aeroplanes and services mainly designed to inform shareholders and backers and boost its share price.
Boeing says Africa’s strong, long-term growth prospects for commercial aviation are closely tied to the continent’s projected 3% annual economic growth over the next 20 years. Initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area and Single African Air Transport Market are expected to stimulate trade, air travel and economic cooperation. Additionally, the region’s middle class and working population is projected to double by the end of the forecast period, driving increased demand for air travel. “Africa has healthy opportunities to expand travel and tourism, coinciding with increasing urbanization and rising incomes,” said Randy Heisey, Boeing managing director of Commercial Marketing for Middle East and Africa. “African carriers are well-positioned to support inter-regional traffic growth and capture market share by offering services that efficiently connect passengers and enable commerce within the continent.”
The 2021 Africa CMO also includes these projections through 2040:
Airlines in Africa will grow their fleets by 3.6% per year to accommodate passenger traffic growth of 5.4% annually, the third-highest growth rate in the world.Single-aisle jets are expected to account for more than 70% of commercial deliveries, with 740 new planes mainly supporting domestic and inter-regional demand. In addition, African carriers are estimated to need 250 new widebodies, including passenger and cargo models, to support long-haul routes and air freight growth.80% of African jet deliveries are expected to serve fleet growth with more sustainable, fuel-efficient models such as the 737, 777X and 787 Dreamliner, with 20% of deliveries replacing older airplanes.Estimated demand for aviation personnel will rise to 63,000 new professionals, including 19,000 pilots, 20,000 technicians and 24,000 cabin crew members.Commercial services opportunities such as supply chain, manufacturing, repair and overhaul are valued at $235 billion.
Whether these figures will prove to be correct for Boeing remains to be seen, most other aviation commentators are sceptical, as most predictions for twenty years time seem to be way wide of the mark that come out of the Boeing office. There are many other issues at play in the African aviation market that could have an impact on Boeing's headline predictions, not least, health, war, corruption and poverty that all take their toll on almost all regions of Africa. For Boeing to reach its goals, it needs to work on all of those issues, plus more besides, yet from its latest dealings with African carriers, one of those aforementioned issues is still a contributing factor.
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